How solar payback actually works

Net metering is why
solar pays off — or doesn't.

The difference between earning full retail credit for your solar exports and earning a fraction of that comes down to one policy. Here's how it works, state by state.

$0.30+Full retail credit (strong states)
$0.05-0.08NEM 3.0 export rate (California)
4 statesCO, CT, VT, VA — all strong, among Sol Country states
The basics

Your meter tracks
flow in both directions.

A rooftop solar system usually produces more electricity than the house uses during sunny midday hours, and less than it uses at night. With a bidirectional (net) meter, the utility tracks both — power you draw from the grid and power you export back.

What happens to that exported power is where states diverge. Two basic models:

Net metering (retail-rate)

Every kWh you export earns a credit equal to the retail rate you'd otherwise pay to buy a kWh — typically $0.15-$0.30+ depending on the state. Over a billing period (often a full year), exports offset imports one-for-one. This is the policy that makes 5-7 year paybacks possible.

Net billing / avoided-cost (NEM 3.0 style)

Exports are credited at the utility's "avoided cost" — what it would have paid a wholesale generator for the same power, usually $0.05-$0.08/kWh. Imports are still billed at full retail. The gap between buy price and sell price is what kills the economics of an export-heavy system without a battery.

Where Sol Country's states stand

Four states with currently
strong net metering.

These four are all currently full or near-full retail net metering — meaning rooftop solar economics still work the way most homeowners assume they do.

Colorado

Full retail net metering, 25kW residential cap.[4] Combined with 5.3 peak sun hours, one of the more reliable policy environments for rooftop solar right now.

Colorado guide →
Connecticut

Full retail credit at $0.29/kWh — among the highest rates in the country.[5] 5-7 year paybacks are realistic.

Connecticut guide →
Vermont

Strong net metering policy under PUC Rule 5.100, designed to also encourage community / group net metering specifically.[6]

Vermont guide →
Virginia

Currently full or near-full retail net metering under VA Code § 56-594[7] — but flagged by some analysts as a state that MAY see changes in coming years, similar to the cost-shift debate that drove California's NEM 3.0. Worth installing sooner if this matters to your decision.

Virginia guide →
Maryland, Maine, and Utah's specific net metering details vary — Sol Country is verifying current specifics for these states and will update this page.
The California case study

NEM 2.0 → NEM 3.0:
a ~75% cut to export rates.

California ran a retail-rate net metering program (NEM 2.0) for years. In December 2022 the California Public Utilities Commission approved the Net Billing Tariff, widely called NEM 3.0, which took effect for new solar interconnections on April 15, 2023.[1]

The change replaced retail-rate credit with avoided-cost export rates derived from the Avoided Cost Calculator — roughly a 75% reduction on average.[1,2] Imports are still billed at full retail. The result: payback periods on solar-only systems stretched from ~6 years to ~9-12 years depending on the utility and household profile.

Grandfathering: customers whose systems were interconnected under NEM 2.0 before April 15, 2023 keep those terms for 20 years from their original interconnection date. The window to qualify for NEM 2.0 by interconnecting before April 15, 2023 has closed — anyone installing in California today is on NEM 3.0.

The practical implication: under NEM 3.0, exporting power at $0.05-$0.08 while buying it back at $0.40+ during peak hours is a losing trade. Pairing solar with a battery — so you self-consume your own production instead of exporting it — becomes essential to making the math work.

Why this happened

Utilities and the CPUC argued that retail-rate net metering created a "cost shift": non-solar customers (often lower-income) end up covering more of the fixed costs of the grid — poles, wires, wildfire mitigation — because solar households' bills were reduced beyond what their actual reduced grid use justified. NEM 3.0 was framed as correcting that imbalance.

What solar advocates argue

Distributed solar still provides real grid value: it reduces peak demand on the hottest afternoons, generates power close to where it's used (cutting transmission and distribution losses), and defers expensive grid upgrades. Studies from Lawrence Berkeley National Lab have estimated those benefits at well above the avoided-cost number — meaning the new export rate likely undercompensates solar's actual value to the system.[3]

See California's full balcony solar + rate picture →
What it means for your decision

Battery for backup, or
battery to capture value?

If you're in a strong net metering state (Colorado, Connecticut, Vermont, and currently Virginia[4,5,6,7]), a battery is optional for savings — useful mainly for backup power during outages. The grid effectively acts as a free, infinite battery, crediting your exports at full retail.

If you're somewhere with reduced export rates (like California under NEM 3.0), a battery becomes essential to capturing your solar's full value — because self-consumption matters more than exporting at low rates. Every kWh you store and use yourself is worth full retail; every kWh you export is worth a fraction.

These are two different reasons to buy a battery. Worth being clear about which one applies to you before you spend $10-15k on storage.

See solar + battery combinations →
Sources & Footnotes
[1] California Public Utilities Commission — Decision 22-12-056 — Net Billing Tariff (NEM 3.0) decision, Dec 15, 2022; effective for new interconnections Apr 15, 2023. source
[2] California Solar & Storage Association (CALSSA) — NEM 3.0 reduces solar export compensation by approximately 75% on average vs. NEM 2.0. source
[3] Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory — Wiser et al., distributed solar grid-value studies (avoided generation, T&D, capacity). source
[4] DSIRE — Colorado Net Metering — Full retail net metering, residential cap up to 25 kW (per investor-owned utility tariffs under C.R.S. § 40-2-124). source
[5] Connecticut PURA — Residential Renewable Energy Solutions (RRES) — Netting / Buy-All tariff structure; residential export compensation among the highest in the U.S.. source
[6] Vermont Public Utility Commission — Rule 5.100 — Net metering rule with adjustments for in-state siting and community / group net metering. source
[7] Virginia Code § 56-594 — Net Energy Metering Provisions — Statutory full retail net metering for residential systems within program caps. source
[8] EnergySage — State Net Metering Policy Tracker — Continuously updated state-by-state net metering reference, 2025-2026. source

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Both sides, sourced
State-by-state honesty
Policies change — verify before deciding
By The Sol Country Team·Last reviewed: July 2026·Editorial standards
Sources

Primary sources for this article

Sol Country reviews these sources on a rolling basis. See our editorial standards for how we source and update data.